<< toomuchtv home

NMK's "I Want My IPTV" event: KEY THEMES
25 May, 2006
01zero-one, Hopkins St, Soho, London

Event Organisers: New Media Knowledge

Chair: Mike Butcher, journalist and digital media consultant, mbites.com
Keynote: William Cooper, founder and principal consultant, informitv.com
Speakers:
Mark Taylor, Technology Research Consultant, France Telecom
Rob Walk, Managing Partner, NovaRising
Scott Gronmark, Interactive Media Consultant, Scott Gronmark Associates
Bob Palmer, CEO and Creative Director, HypTV

Key themes to emerge from the half day event, summarised by Paul Robinson, toomuchtv.co.uk

1. Ignore this at your peril
2. TV and Telcos are ripe for disruption
3. The EPG is crucial
4. Trust is everything
5. Content will be commoditised and ubiquitous
6. User-generated content is/is not rubbish

1. Ignore this at your peril

"The intersection of internet and video" is too huge to ignore. William Cooper provided most of the evidence:

• Broadband and Freeview, which together are the backbone of the BT "Vision" IPTV service, are currently two of the fastest growing services in the UK.
• Most major Telcos in the world are now launching video services.
• Currently there are only 2.5m IPTV subscribers globally, but huge broadband subscription levels means huge growth potential, with 30million IPTV subscribers conservatively forecast by 2010. (Note, two days earlier at the 3rd Annual Interactive TV Advertising Show, Alcatel's Toon Coppens put the figure at 70million by 2010).
• Cable providers can move over into IPTV at the time of their choosing: the right cabling is in place.
• Sky's new HD boxes all have an Ethernet connection – which provides a clue to the future.
Rob Walk and Scott Gronmark added to the evidence:
• ADSL 2 (up to 24Mb) is finally happening.
• Spot advertising is being undermined from many directions.
• The 33% of homes that are still analogue are disappearing.
• 75% of kids are in multi-channel homes – and they're not watching mainstream tv.
Scott Gronmark presented the case that broadcasters in particular need to pay attention. They are the most likely sector to avoid facing the reality, and it is the broadcasters who may have the most to lose; if they're quit-witted then broadcasters have a lot to offer, but in theory broadcasters are dispensable in an IPTV environment.

Waiting around for one stable "IPTV platform" does not make sense; waiting for stable business models to emerge means abdicating the opportunity to influence; whether your business is broadcasting, EPGs, advertising or content, you must not wait.

back to top


2. TV and Telcos are ripe for disruption

There is no shortage of disruptive scenarios, services and options. Some main disruptive forces:
• Microsoft's XBOX360 and Sony's PlayStation are examples of disruptive "Trojan horses" (William Cooper) that use other people's networks. Slingbox, Orb, etc similarly use other people's networks to deliver video over IP while keeping their own cost of entry relatively low; this is a big disruptive force faced by the large Telcos.
• Mobile and VoIP are further disrupting Telcos' traditional fixed-line model.
• Viewer behaviour is disrupting the TV hegemony. BBC DG Mark Thompson can't say it often enough. Viewers are moving away from the big networks (and TV in general). Viewers are also becoming part of the value chain by feeding content into it. TV is now being disrupted by the likes of YouTube in the way that journalism has been disrupted by blogs and music has been disrupted by Napster and iTunes. Mark Taylor pointed out that a few days ago (May 2006) YouTube's reach overtook that of bbc.co.uk; he provided a short list of other similarly disruptive services:
    - Box Office 365
    - Rocketboom
    - Ourmedia
    - Brightcove
    - Current tv
    - Seeder (an index of torrents)
    - Tioti (tape it off the internet)
    - Tvtv.co.uk (£1.25/month subscriptions – not bad compared with Sky)
    - Vpod.tv
• Broadband TV. Rob Walk mentions emerging technologies that are making the viewing of video on PCs more palatable. Vividas is one example, providing solutions that move beyond the sub-broadcast-quality RealMedia or WindowsMediaPlayer experience.

back to top


3. The EPG is crucial

William Cooper offered a scenario for the future in which "the Guide" is a gateway to tens of thousands of live streams, hundreds of thousands of on-demand programmes, virtually every movie ever made and millions of music tracks. Sense is made of this content through suggestions and play-lists based variously on mood, personal preferences, and recommendations from friends, like-minded viewers and selected pundits.

Rob Walk's view of the varied services and content types that EPGs will need to address includes broadcast TV, On Demand TV (ranging from premium to archive content), community content (UGC, vlogs) and "friends and family" content (eg photo albums). Mark Taylor reminds us that shelf space will be infinite. Means of categorising and searching content will therefore be crucial.

Scott Gronmark suggests that one of the factors of success in future will not be limitless volumes of available content; there is already "too much tv". Rather, once all this content is available the key will be the means to sort through this content and find what we want.

EPGs therefore will become devices to obtain and organise huge volumes of new and disparate types of content from a range of sources, ideally in various highly personalised ways. EPGs, rather than content, become differentiators.

Such necessary gateways are necessarily going to be used by huge audience volumes; such personalised gateways are likely to present extremely effective targeting opportunities. The combined punch of volume and targeting means it's only a matter of time before the potential for advertising starts to be realised.

back to top


4. Trust is everything

There's a huge number of factors that will differentiate the many means of obtaining and viewing video content, including ease of use, billing, interactive services and the triple/quad play. One of the least tangible but most crucial is trust.

The blend of broadband and Freeview at the centre of BT's "Vision" proposition is a theoretical winner, but will the viewer trust BT to understand what he/she wants from the telly? An ICM poll presented by William Cooper suggests BT might be safe in this area, placing BT second on a list of brands considered by viewers to be best positioned to "bring together your in-home entertainment and broadband requirements" in the future.

In theory broadcasters should be the winners – they are the acceptable face of the industry, the brands we choose to snuggle up with on the sofa. Yet ITV, still the UK's largest commercial broadcaster, scored lowest in the ICM poll.

In theory NTL/Telewest should be the winners, as they currently control the optimal network for delivery of video over IP – but does their performance and record on customer relations over the past few years mean they will be trusted in future?

back to top


5. Content will be commoditised and ubiquitous

No-one doubts the concept of premium content (including live events), effectively protected and monetised by producers, will continue to exist. The rest gets messy, as user-generated content, re-mixed content and pirated content collide with conventionally-produced content funded by legitimate but nevertheless unconventional business models. Content producers and owners want to distribute their content as widely as possible; if the volumes are there then revenue through advertising (but not interruptive spot ads) becomes more important than trying to limit the audience to those who've paid to view.

Scott Gronmark points out it's short-sighted to exclusively link means of distribution or means of retail with inventory. This was one of the fundamental mistakes ITV made a few years ago, when ITV withheld its channels from the Sky platform in the misguided hope that this would sufficiently incentivise consumers to subscribe to the ITV-owned DTT platform rather than Sky.

Once again the music industry provides a lesson: with few and obscure exceptions, record labels do not restrict which vendors are allowed to sell their products.

This ubiquity is why content is generally not seen a factor differentiating IPTV services.

back to top


6. User-generated content is/is not rubbish

Not formally on the agenda, but an irresistible theme that wouldn't go away throughout the afternoon. Scott Gronmark championed the sceptical corner, a number of delegates were the strongest advocates of UGC, and Bob Palmer of HypTV trod a delicate line between the two (HypTV is populated solely by content submitted by hidden or unsigned talent - artists, students, etc - but the content is vetted by HypTV to ensure a quality threshold is upheld).

Mark Taylor focussed on UGC's increasing pervasiveness, whether it's rubbish or not. Rocketboom and current tv are examples of content created by non-professionals that offer something more than footage of singing dogs and kids falling off skateboards; the quality of content is high, the audience figures are growing, and advertisers are paying attention. These are genuine alternatives to TV 1.0.

back to top

© 2006 Paul Robinson

With thanks to Zoe Black and Deirdre Molloy / NMK


<< toomuchtv home